Netanyahu and Sinwar: A year into war, leaders remain in power and without a cease-fire deal

LONDON — Israel and Hamas remain locked in brutal conflict in the Gaza Strip after one year of war, the ramifications of which are reverberating far beyond the rubble-strewn and cratered streets of the devastated Palestinian territory.

At both the Israeli and Hamas helms are veterans of decades of conflict who have survived the first 12 months of the latest regional conflagration. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar may now be engaged in their last showdown.

Both blame the other for the failure to reach a cease-fire deal.

Hamas alleges that Netanyahu is intentionally sabotaging negotiations in a bid to retain power — a sentiment also common among Netanyahu’s domestic rivals.

Hamas and its backers pointed to the assassination of political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July as evidence that Netanyahu and his government have little genuine interest in talking.

Hamas’ recent killing of six hostages in southern Gaza was likewise cited by Netanyahu as proof that only military measures can achieve Israeli goals. “Whoever murders hostages — does not want a deal,” Netanyahu said in September.

‘The Butcher’

Sinwar is considered Israel’s number one target. Top leaders like Haniyeh and Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah are already dead. Israel also claims to have killed Hamas military commander Mohamed Deif, though the group claims he is alive.

Sinwar has long been a key enemy of the Israeli state. First jailed in 1982, he was re-arrested in 1988 related to the abduction and killing of two Israeli soldiers and the murder of four suspected Palestinian collaborators.

His killing of suspected collaborators earned him the nickname “The Butcher of Khan Younis” in Israeli media. Sinwar was eventually released from prison in 2011 as part of the prisoner exchange deal that freed captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.

He won leadership of Hamas in Gaza in 2017, and assumed full control of the group after Haniyeh’s assassination in July.

Sinwar’s position has been precarious throughout the conflict. He is believed to have survived the past year by sheltering in the network of tunnels under Gaza, allegedly surrounded by a shield of hostages taken in the Oct. 7 raid into Israel.

At least once, Israel had him in its crosshairs, but called off the impending strike for fear of killing hostages, an Israeli media outlet reported last month.

Sinwar’s isolation means he has often been incommunicado during the war, with Hamas cease-fire negotiators reportedly unable to reach him for several weeks at a time.

“It seems that he’s alive,” Orna Mizrahi — who previously served in the Israel Defense Forces’ Military Intelligence Research Division and as deputy national security adviser for foreign policy to Netanyahu — told ABC News.

“Intelligence had the opportunity a few times to eliminate him, but he was with hostages, so they didn’t do it,” she said.

Sinwar, Mizrahi said, “wants a hostage deal that will let him survive, and leave him the possibility to build up again his capabilities and his people. We cannot allow this.”

“There is no tendency to compromise from the side of Sinwar, because he thought that the continuation of the war in the north and the possibility of a regional war would serve his interests,” Mizrahi said. “This is what he was waiting for.”

‘Mr. Security’

Oct. 7 threatened to prove politically fatal for Netanyahu. Already deeply divisive after decades in power, persistent legal troubles and controversial judicial reform, “Mr. Security” — as he has often been billed by the media — saw his approval ratings drop to new lows after one of the worst security failures in Israeli history.

But Israel’s great political operator survived. Despite public anger over the failure to free the remaining hostages, domestic concern over the expansion of the war into Lebanon and massive international pressure over Israeli conduct in Gaza and beyond, the prime minister’s position appears robust.

Netanyahu has weathered demands for fresh elections and stayed the course even when rival Benny Gantz left the emergency war cabinet in July, citing the failure to agree on a post-war plan for Gaza.

Israel’s recent successful covert and assassination operations in Lebanon gave Netanyahu a boost. A poll by Israel’s Channel 12 released at the end of September showed the prime minister’s Likud party would win more seats than any other if a general election was held imminently.

Netanyahu will also be strengthened by the recent decision of prominent political rival Gideon Saar to join the government.

The next parliamentary election is expected by October 2026. The prime minister does not appear interested in an early poll, though his party is projected to perform well.

In March, Netanyahu hit out at U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer for his suggestion that elections should take place after the war on Gaza winds down.

Netanyahu’s Likud party responded in with a statement, calling on the senator to “respect Israel’s elected government and not undermine it.” The party added that Israel was “an independent and proud democracy that elected Prime Minister Netanyahu.”

“It’s inappropriate to go to a sister democracy and try to replace the elected leadership there,” Netanyahu said. “That’s something the Israeli public does on its own, we’re not a banana republic.”

Meanwhile, the prime minister is urging national unity as the one-year-old conflict spills over into a wider regional war.

“We should not forget that we are still in the midst of a difficult war, the costs of which are heavy,” he said in September. “The cohesion of the ranks is a necessary condition for us to stand firm in these challenging days.”

The outlook

Netanyahu’s political resilience is not in doubt. But a year of war has sharpened existing grievances among some sections of Israeli society.

The Hostages and Missing Families Forum — formed of relatives of those abducted to Gaza on Oct. 7 — for example, held a demonstration outside Netanyahu’s home on Monday morning to mark the anniversary of the attack.

And a poll published by the Channel 12 news organization this weekend showed that 69% of Israelis do not want Netanyahu to stand at the next election, though respondents did rate him more favorably than prime opponents Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid.

Yossi Mekelberg of the Chatham House think tank in the U.K. wrote last week that an “imperative” change in Israel’s security discourse to one with a vision of peace, coexistence and reconciliation is “only possible with the removal of Benjamin Netanyahu from office.”

“His ‘stop at nothing’ approach to political survival has consistently overshadowed the country’s politics, society and foreign affairs at a time when progress is needed in all these areas,” Mekelberg wrote.

Netanyahu’s political rivals, meanwhile, have not let up. Opposition leader Lapid, for example, described the current administration as “the worst government in our history” and its members as a “bunch of opportunists.”

Internal wranglings are more opaque in Hamas’ case.

It is a matter of speculation as to how much day-to-day influence Sinwar — if he is alive — has on operations. Regardless, the group’s surviving members are still fighting in Gaza despite the ravaging of the strip and Israel’s mammoth military superiority.

Israel’s proposed “Generals’ Plan” — by which northern Gaza may be put under siege after the evacuation of civilians, or at least as many as will be willing to or can leave — speaks to the tenacity of Hamas units.

“I see no flexibility among Hamas,” Michael Milshtein, a former head of Palestinian affairs for Israeli military intelligence, told ABC News.

“I’m not sure at all that, even if there will be more achievements on the northern front, Sinwar will change his stance regarding the deal,” Milshtein continued.

“Even if he is killed, I’m not sure that the one who will replace him will be more flexible, or will adopt more moderate positions,” he added.

Sinwar or no Sinwar, Hamas demands are likely to remain the same, Milshtein said.

“Hamas is ready for a deal,” he explained, “but the basic condition of Hamas is that there will be a total, full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.”

“Israel, of course, opposes this idea. So, it’s not very accurate to say that there is no desire or readiness of Hamas for a deal,” Milshtein said.

“You can say that Israel doesn’t agree to consider Hamas’ basic conditions. Many people in Israel understand this point very well.”